HUGE Price Drops in the Dallas Housing Market! | Which Dallas Suburbs made the list?
Well...Don't look now, but there are some Dallas Texas suburbs that are now down as much as 38% from their peaks. After doing research on 100 Dallas suburbs, we are going to share with you the 9 suburbs that have dropped from their highs and may be approaching your particular buying point and we are going to get after it right after this!
Alright, so today we are talking about some of the suburbs whose prices have dropped the furthest from their 2022 peaks and just may be at a level you might want to begin looking into. As I said in the intro, my team and I took the time to look at over 100 of the Dallas Texas suburbs to see which ones may be getting pretty close to buying levels people keep talking about, even for the most adamant discount shopper.
So let’s start it off with the Dallas Metro entire MLS 1st to give you a baseline to work from and let you know how things are going out here. So the January numbers are out, and in case you may not be aware, December and January are historically the lowest and slowest times of the year for real estate here in Dallas. and These past 2 months have been no exception to that rule thus far.
DALLAS TEXAS HOUSING MARKET
now As you can see, DFW peaked in June of 2022 at a median sales price of $409,000, this is all the homes in the entire MLS. Currently, as you can see, January hit a new low of $358,000 which gives us a 12.5% decline from the highs in 2022. Now, year over year which is from January 2022 to January 2023 we are still up 3.8%. So as you can see, we have come down a decent amount from the peak, but we have not seen the 20%+ decline many people are looking for.
while the days on market continue to rise, we are now up to 39 days which has taken us back to our pre-pandemic level in January 2020 of 41 days, this is another metric that seems to follow a pattern, this tends to be at its highest for the year in January as well. Though it is up quite a bit from last year when homes were sitting on the market for less than 10 days.
The month’s supply in Dallas has also declined 2 straight months and is now down to 2.5 months, which is still within the seller’s market range and is a big reason home values have not declined further than they have. Most sellers are just not selling, because they do not need to.
One final metric we will discuss is how the Median % of the original list price remained the same as the Decembers low of 95.2% of the list price, indicating that sellers are willing to budge a bit from the original price, and that is now at a 10 year low. This is good news for buyers, as interest rates continue to come down, and prices have come down as well from their highs.
Overall, unemployment remains low at 3.5% since December 2022 and the First Mortgage Default index ticked up to 0.43% and has been rising since its 5 yr low in November of 2021.
The 30-year fixed rate mortgages also continue to come down from their November highs and are now down to 6.09%, and starting to head closer to that coveted 5.5% range that we have talked about previously. which is the level that some suggest is when buyers step back into the market, thus as we head closer to it, buyers will likely pick up the buying.
And finally, on the last economic front, the Consumer Price Index (or the gauge of inflation) dropped to a new low since the high in June, it’s down to 6.5%, which is why the Fed only raised rates a 1/4%, however, they noted there are likely more ahead as inflation is still historically high.
So to sum it up, things appear to be improving, home prices are coming down, mortgage rates are coming down, and there are still no indications of a major economic meltdown from a severe recession or job losses. All of this news is keeping the housing market here in DFW holding up pretty well, and I have also been getting a significant increase in people reaching out to me and indicating they are looking to make the move to Dallas sometime this year.
So, if you are one of those people who are thinking about making a move out here to DFW this year, this list is a good place to possibly look for some deals. this list is by no means comprehensive, I am only going to talk about the top 9 cities that have declined the most since their peaks. and If there are any other cities you have had on your mind, make sure to reach out and we can certainly talk about them.
So in descending order from 9 to 1 in terms of the largest decline from their 2022 peaks.
ROCKWALL TEXAS
Coming in at number 9 we have Rockwall Texas, Rockwall is located about 23 miles to the north East of Dallas. The city has a great little historic downtown area with restaurants and shops, as well as bordering Lake Ray Hubbard on the east. Rockwall gets an A grade for overall living, has good schools and is ranked #1 in best places to live in Rockwall County, and is ranked 26th for the best Suburb in DFW according to Niche.com.
Now Rockwall peaked in 2022 at a median sales price of $549,000, this was a 72% increase from the median sales price in 2019 before the pandemic. In January of 2023, Rockwall's median sales price dropped to $455,000 dropping 17% from its peak. It is also noted that Rockwalls median sales price for the year 2022 was $502,000, so from the 2022 levels, that leaves Rockwall already 9% below the median sales price. It would still need to drop 30% to get back to the 2019 median sales price level of $320,000.
So if you're looking for a great area to live that’s in good proximity to Dallas and has plenty of things to do, then you may want to check this city out.
RICHARDSON TEXAS
Coming in at #8 we have Richardson Texas, this is where UT Dallas is located and is a heavy Tech Section hub. It’s only about 15 miles from Dallas, so if you want a short commute or you work in the tech or STEM professions, Richardson could be a great option. It also gets an A+ rating from niche and is rated #5 in the best cities to retire in America. It also comes in as the 8th best suburb in DFW.
So Richardson peaked at about $505,000 in 2022, from a 2019 median sales price to its peak in 2022, it ran up 58%. In January, the median sales price dropped to $415,000 giving it an 18% drop from the peak in 2022. It is also 8% below the 2022 median sales price of about $450,000. While it has not yet reached the 2019 levels, which require the median sales price to drop another 23% from this level, it is currently at a decent discount and if you have been wanting to move there, then you may want to start paying more attention.
PLANO TEXAS
Coming in at number 7 we have Plano Texas, this is another very popular suburb and is very close to Frisco Texas. Plano is ranked by niche as the 5th best suburb in DFW, received a grade of A+, and has great schools and family life. Plano is located about 20 miles North of Dallas, so it’s not too bad of a commute if you happen to work downtown, or need to get to any of the airports. So this is a great alternative to Frisco, as the price point is cheaper and you're close enough to enjoy the amenities Frisco has to offer.
So, Plano peaked in 2022 at $585,000, and from the 2019 median sales price, Plano appreciated 68%. so it is a highly desirable area as you can tell. In January the median sales price was down to about $479,000 giving it also an 18% decline from the peak of 2022. It is also about 10% below the median sales price for all of 2022 at $530,000. It will still need to drop another 27% in order to get back down to its pre-pandemic median sales price of $348,000. Im Not sure it will get all the way back down there, but approaching 20% from its highs, it may be worth looking at.
LITTLE ELM TEXAS
Coming in at #6, we have a Little Elm Texas. Little Elm is about 33 miles to the North of Dallas, and not too far from the west side of Frisco, and it is right next to Lewisville lake for all of you skiers and boaters. Little Elm receives a grade of A from niche and is the #12 best place to live in Denton County. It is also ranked the 41st-best suburb in DFW.
So Little Elm peaked in 2022 at about $500,000, and from the 2019 median sales price of $280,000 it appreciated about 79% during that time. In January, the median sales price in Little Elm was about $400,000 indicating it has dropped about 20% from its peak in 2022. It is also down 13% below the median sales price in 2022 of about $459,000. So while it is a decent discount for sure, it would still need to drop another 30% to get back to the 2019 levels.
PROSPER TEXAS
That leads us to #5 which is known for its beautiful Blue Lagoon in the community of Windsong Ranch, which is Prosper Texas. Now Prosper has been a very high-demand city over the past few years. Prosper is located about 37 miles straight North of Dallas, so that is one of the drawbacks if you need to commute downtown on a regular basis. Prosper is ranked as the 21st best place to raise a family in DFW and is ranked 25th for the best city in DFW.
In 2022, Prosper topped out with a median sales price of $950,000, from the 2019 median sales price to that peak, Prosper appreciated about 96%. It is amazing what a little white sandy beach and a beautiful master-planned community can do 🙂 .
So as of January 2023, the median sales price dropped to about $747,000 giving you a discount of 21% from the peak. It is also 11% below the 2022 median price of $840,000. So if you have been dying to live near the beach, you may want to reach out so we can find you something before it starts warming up and everyone else gets the same idea. But Prosper would still need to drop another 35% from its current levels to get back to its 2019 levels though.
CARROLTON TEXAS
Coming in at number 4 we have Carrolton Texas, i’s located about 20 miles to the North of Dallas, so not too bad of a commute, and it’s also fairly close to the DFW airport. Carrolton gets a grade of A from niche.com and is ranked #24 for the best suburb in DFW.
Carrolton reached its peak in 2022 at $495,000, and from 2019 to that peak, it rose 65%. in January 2023, Carrolton's median price dropped to about $388,000 giving it a drop of 22% from its peak. It is also down about 11% from the 2022 median price of about $435,000. So if you're looking for an area that is in a very central location and gets decent grades overall, this may be a great place for you. And In order for it to get back to pre-pandemic levels it would need to drop another 23% from its current levels.
ALLEN TEXAS
Number 3 on the list we give you Allen Texas, this is another great suburb here in DFW, close to Frisco and you may have heard of it before because it has the largest high school in all of texas and basically a college-level football stadium. This is another area that gets searched and asked about a lot. Allen is located about 26 miles to the North of Dallas and received a grade of A+ from niche as it scores highly in most of the categories. and It’s ranked as the 13th-best suburb in all of DFW.
Allen Texas topped out in 2022 at about $665,000 and from 2019 to its peak, Allen appreciated 94%. Currently, Allen's median price in January was $520,000 indicating it has dropped 22% from the top. It is also down about 9% from its 2022 median price of about $570,000. In order to get back to pre-pandemic levels it would need to drop another 34% from the January numbers. But again, these discounts are coming at the typically slowest time of year for real estate, so depending on how things go this spring, if you're wanting to move to Allen, you may want to start looking now.
IRVING TEXAS
Now for number 2, we have the lowest median price point, so those who are looking for something under $400,000 may be able to find a deal here. And that city is Irving Texas. Out of all the cities, I’m mentioning today, Irving is the closest to Dallas, as it’s only about 14 miles to the West of it. Irving does get an overall rating of A from niche.com and for the most part, most of the ratings in the categories are pretty high. It does come in 33rd for best cities to buy a house in all of AMERICA and is the 28th best suburb in DFW according to niche.com. Again, the big draw to Irving is its location.
So Irving's peak in 2022 was $485,000, and from 2019 to its peak, it rose 62%. In January, Irving's median price hit $355,000 thus it has dropped 27% from the peak. It is also down 8% from the 2022 median price of $386,000. Irving only needs to drop another 15% in order to reach the median price in 2019 of $300,000. So this is getting to a level that many people are going to start taking notice of, especially since it’s so close to downtown and the DFW airport.
KELLER TEXAS
So....That leaves us with #1 on our list. this one was kind of a surprise to me, as it is a pretty desirable location and right next door to the # 1 suburb in DFW. This is none other than Keller Texas. Keller is located right next to Southlake Texas, which means you're close enough to enjoy all the amenities, shopping, and restaurants that make Southlake so desirable. Keller is about 33 miles to the Northwest of Dallas, but it’s also not too far from the DFW airport. Keller receives a rating of A+ and all the categories score well, it has great schools, low crime, and is great for families. So you may want to reach out if you're looking for something in a great location that’s currently at a huge discount.
So Keller topped out in 2022 with prices around $800,000, so it’s not quite Southlake numbers, but it’s not particularly cheap either.
From 2019 to its peak, Keller shot up in value by 87%, and in January 2023, the median sales price came in at $499,000. If you can believe it, that is down an astounding 38% from the highs in 2022. The other noteworthy item is that its down 23% from its 2022 median sales price for the whole year which was $650,000. This one definitely made me do a double take, this place is a very desirable suburb of Dallas Texas and it indicated it is down 38% from its peaks. If you are looking to buy this year, I am not sure how long this will last, or maybe it’s just a fluke for January. But either way, you should definitely reach out so we can take a look together to see if there may be something you might be able to snag for a pretty good deal.
Oh, it’s also only about 15% away from its 2019 levels, which also makes it an interesting prospect.
So there you have it, we wanted to share with you that there are some deals to be had out there right now. With the economic indicators not flashing red, inflation coming down, and Mortgage rates also continuing to come down, the spring may be a little livelier than many are expecting, unless of course, something horrible happens to the economy, sellers still do not need to sell, jobs are still stable overall, and people are still moving to Dallas, thus causing the housing shortage to continue.
So as always, I hope you found this useful AND helpful if you're on the fence about purchasing a home. There are places out there as you can see that have dropped 20% from the highs. You just need someone like us who is continually diving into the market to share these insights with you so you can make an informed decision.
And as always, if you have any questions, don't hesitate to reach out, give us a call, shoot us a text, or send us an email so we can set up some time to get to know each other and more importantly see how we can help you make that smooth here to the beautiful state of Texas, more specifically here in Dallas, and with that, until the next time.... take care.
